China president Xi reportedly held phone talks with Brazil president Lula As Trump calls for China to quadruple its soybean purchases from the US, Brazil is one to be concerned as they have been China's top soybeans supplier for a while now. For some context, China is the world's largest buyer ...
Posted:
investingLive Asia-pacific FX news wrap: Awaiting the US inflation data US and China extended their tariff truce for 90 days, lifting Asian stocks and sending Japan’s Nikkei to a record high. Australia’s business confidence hit a three-year peak ahead of an expected RBA rate cut, while China flagged new consumer ...
Posted:
JPMorgan sees stagflation signs as tariffs lift prices and US growth, jobs slow JPMorgan is warning that the US could face a “somewhat stagflationary” environment in the second half of the year, as early signs of tariff-driven price pressures combine with softer demand and a weakening labour market.In a note on Monday, strategist ...
Posted:
China to outline subsidized loan policies for consumers and service sector on August 13 China’s government will hold a press conference at 10 a.m. local time on August 13 to detail new subsidized loan policies aimed at boosting personal consumption and supporting service-sector businesses. The measures are expected to form part of Beijing’s broader ...
Posted:
Trump, South Korea’s Lee to meet in Washington on Aug 25 - security and economic... South Korean President Lee Jae-myung will visit the US from August 24–26 for his first summit with President Donald Trump, his office said. The leaders will meet on August 25 in Washington to discuss strengthening the strategic alliance between the ...
Posted:
Australian data - July business confidence 7 (vs. prior 5) National Australia Bank Business Survey for July 2025Business confidence rises to 7, a three-year highstrength in services and constructionprior 5Business conditions fall to 7prior 9Some of the sub measures:business sales 11 in July, from 8 priorprofitability 2, prior 4employment 1, ...
Posted:
China eases export curbs, lifts measures on 12 US firms and signals case-by-case licences China has updated its export control lists, introducing provisions that allow companies to apply for permission to trade with entities currently subject to restrictions. As part of the changes, Beijing has lifted export control measures on 12 US-based entities and ...
Posted:
PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1418 (vs. estimate at 7.1901) The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the ...
Posted:
Monetary Authority of Singapore says policy remains appropriate, MAS well placed on risks Singapore central bank chief economist:Reaffirms that policy remains appropriate and Mas is well placed to respond to risksremains appropriate after accounting for factors affecting domestic growth and inflationsays that a gradualist approach under conditions of uncertainty is useful as we ...
Posted:
Trump taps EJ Antoni to head BLS, sparking concerns over partisanship and expertise Trump taps EJ Antoni to head BLS, sparking concerns over partisanship and expertise
President Trump has nominated EJ Antoni, chief economist at the Heritage Foundation, to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics, following Trump's dismissal of the previous commissioner over job ...
Posted:
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1901 – Reuters estimate People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a ...
Posted:
Singapore Q2 GDP +4.4% y/y (vs. 4.3% expected) & +1.4% q/q Singapore’s economy expanded 4.4% year-on-year in Q2, slightly above the earlier 4.3% estimate, with quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.4% following a 0.5% contraction in Q1. The Ministry of Trade and Industry upgraded its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.5–2.5% from 0.0–2.0%, ...
Posted:
Trump just confirmed his can-kick TACO - extends China tariff pause for another 90 days Greg had this news hours ago, just a formality now Trump extends China tariff deadlines 90 daysTrump:Just signed an executive order that will extend tariff suspension on China for another 90 daysAll other elements of agreement will remain same
...
Posted:
GBP to fall against EUR and USD - pick your poison. BoE to cut again... HSBC says its economists expect further signs of disinflation to emerge alongside a cooling UK labour market, paving the way for the Bank of England to maintain a steady pace of 25-basis-point rate cuts each quarter until Bank Rate reaches ...
Posted:
UK retail sales rise in July, driven by warm weather and higher food prices UK consumer spending picked up in July, helped by hot weather early in the month (the UK Met Office said July was the UK’s fifth-warmest on record.) that boosted clothing sales, though momentum faded later as temperatures cooled. The British ...
Posted:
How's this for a dual mandate? Citi says CPI may give Fed a migraine in... A note from Citi says the upcoming US CPI report could present the Federal Reserve with “dual headaches,” as investors focus on core goods inflation. Goods prices ticked higher last month and could remain a concern in future readings as ...
Posted:
JPMorgan warns on ugly coming price of stagflation - could cap bond gains (& weigh... JPMorgan Asset Management is warning that even if the Fed starts cutting rates, a renewed pickup in inflation could prevent the kind of bond rally investors might normally expect — and at the same time, it could undermine the dollar.“The ...
Posted:
Goldman Sachs say consumers going to get slammed, tariff price rises to jump a further... Goldman Sachs have assembled what they say is early analysis only of where tariffs are hitting pockets. Data as of June 2025, so yeah, still early:Foreign exporters have absorbed about 14% of US tariffs, while American companies have taken on ...
Posted:
investingLive Americas FX news wrap 11 Aug:Modest changes in the markets ahead of CPI data US stocks close lower. Nasdaq trades to a new intraday high before rotating lowerCrude oil settles at $63.96Trump extends China tariff deadlines 90 daysAdd FOMCs Bowman, Jefferson and Dallas Fed Pres. Logan to list of Fed ChairTrump: Gold will not ...
Posted:
BoA says a Fed Sept rate cut not justified, cite inflation stuck above target, tariff... Bank of America is cautioning that the Federal Reserve should resist the urge to lower interest rates at its September policy meeting, arguing that recent economic data doesn’t justify an early start to easing.In a note to clients, the bank ...
Posted:
Economic calendar in Asia August 12, 2025 - Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut expected I'm expecting a 'hawkish cut' from the Reserve Bank of Australia today:Reserve Bank of Australia expected to cut its cash rate this week by 25bpRBA poised to cut cash rate tomorrow after July pauseThis snapshot from the economic data calendar.The ...
Posted:
Crude oil settles at $63.96 The price of crude oil futures are settling eight cents higher at $63.96. The high price today reached $64.44 the low price was at $63.02.Looking at the hourly chart, the price consolidation seen over the last few days has led ...
Posted:
Trump extends China tariff deadlines 90 days Pres. Trump has signed an executive order to extend the deadline for China tariffs by 90 days to November 9. The initial China extension was to expire tomorrow. That will not happen. Kick the can down the road (or ...
Posted:
Add FOMCs Bowman, Jefferson and Dallas Fed Pres. Logan to list of Fed Chair There is a report from Bloomberg that Fed Gov. Bowman, Vice Chair Jefferson, and Dallas Fed Pres. Logan are reportedly under consideration for the Fed chair. Those names get added to former Fed Pres. Bullard and Marc Sumerlin, a former ...
Posted:
AUDUSD technicals: AUDUSD consolidates around MA levels The AUDUSD is trading near its session lows, but the day’s range is only 34 pips — a sign of restrained price action ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision in the new trading day. The RBA is ...
Posted:
Trump: Gold will not be tariffed Gold prices on the Comexare trading down $-86.50 or -2.47% at $3405.There was confusion last week that the would be tariff which the administration said the news agencies were giving misleading information without saying that misleading information was. Today in ...
Posted:
Major European indices closed the day with mixed results The major European indices closed the day with mixed results. The decliners were the German DAX, France's CAC, and Italy's FTSE MIB. The UK FTSE 100 and Spain's Ibex moved higher.A summary of the closing levels shows: German DAX, -0.34%France's ...
Posted:
USDJPY technicals: USDJPY moves above key MA target. Can the buyers keep the momentum? Last week, USDJPY spent much of its time trapped between key moving averages on the 4-hour chart — with the 100-bar MA acting as resistance and the 200-bar MA serving as support. This created a well-defined consolidation zone where traders ...
Posted:
Trump: We'll see what happens with the China deadline. Putin meeting is a feel out... Trump on China:On the deadline (expiring on August 12), we'll see what happens with the deadlineThey (China) have been dealing nicely.Says he has a very good relationship with Chinese Pres. Xi.So far there has been no formal announcement about whether ...
Posted:
After sending in National Guard to LA, Trump now sends them to Washington DC Evoking the Home Rule Act, as place the DC police under direct federal control. He will send in the National Guard troops. Recall in June, Trump sent National Guard troops to LA in response to protests for the ...
Posted:
Trump tariff revenues reached $29.6B in July. Has it peaked? The Trump tariff revenues reached $29.6B in July which was a billion or two more than the $28B collected in June. Tariff revenues rose steadily from $17.4 billion in April to $23.9 billion in May, before climbing to $28 ...
Posted:
USDCAD technicals: USDCAD moved above the 100 day MA. It did not go well. USDCAD pushed higher in today’s session, breaking above the 200-hour MA at 1.37817 and the 100-day MA at 1.37876. From a technical perspective, those breaks should have been meaningful and set the stage for additional upside momentum. Instead, the rally ...
Posted:
EURUSD technicals: EURUSD falls to the next key support target EURUSD has pushed to fresh session lows, pressing against a key technical pivot — the 50% retracement of the drop from the July 1 high at 1.16098. Earlier in the U.S. session, the pair slipped under its 100-hour moving average ...
Posted:
USDCHF joins the USD higher break The USDCHF stalled the highs last Wednesday, Thursday and Friday all peaked near 0.8090 The break higher led to increased buying momentum on the break.The price has reached to 0.8116 which also happens to be the high from last week ...
Posted:
Technical Analysis: What technical levels are driving the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD The USD is at the highs to start the day vs most of the major currencies, but still relatively little changed. In the video above, I take a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD and outline the bias, ...
Posted:
investingLive European markets wrap: Dollar steady, gold slips; markets wait on US CPI Headlines:US inflation data to set the tone for markets this weekGold eases to start the week, traders await US tariffs clarificationOf soybeans and trade dealsItaly July final HICP +1.7% vs +1.7% preliminarySNB total sight deposits w.e. 8 August CHF 465.9 ...
Posted:
Of soybeans and trade deals Late yesterday, Trump said that he hopes for China to quickly quadruple its soybean purchases from the US. This comes as both sides are still looking to find ways to strike a compromise on trade. The current truce is one ...
Posted:
S&P 500 Futures Technical Analysis and Price Prediction with tradeCompass S&P 500 Futures Technical Analysis and Price Prediction with tradeCompass (August 11, 2025)Bullish above: 6,422
Bearish below: 6,416
Primary Bias: Mixed, range-bound conditions likely
Partial Profit Targets: See detailed levels belowToday's S&P 500 Market Context and Directional BiasAt the time of this analysis, ...
Posted:
Gold eases to start the week, traders await US tariffs clarification Gold futures, more specifically COMEX contracts, surged at the end of last week as the US customs agency is said to have marked the precious metal as being subject to tariffs. The spot market was much calmer as noted here, ...
Posted:
Italy July final HICP +1.7% vs +1.7% preliminary Prior +1.8%CPI Y/Y +1.7% vs +1.7% preliminaryPrior +1.7%No changes from the preliminary figures. It certainly won't change anything for the ECB.
...
Posted:
SNB total sight deposits w.e. 8 August CHF 465.9 bn vs CHF 468.5 bn prior Domestic sight deposits CHF 437.1 bn vs CHF 493.5 bn priorSwiss sight deposits continue to moderate just a little after having jumped higher in the weeks before, owing to the SNB treatment change on sight deposits after the June meeting ...
Posted:
Taiwan says that tariff negotiations with US are still ongoing As a reminder, Taiwan was slapped with 20% tariffs in the latest twist to the tariffs saga. But they are reaffirming that negotiations are still ongoing, with the goal being to "seek a better and more reasonable tariff rate".It's the ...
Posted:
RBA poised to cut cash rate tomorrow after July pause The decision to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.85% was a surprise at the time but it was mostly about buying time for confirmation from the Q2 CPI report. And they pretty much got that with trimmed mean inflation ...
Posted:
PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1405 (vs. estimate at 7.1845) The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the ...
Posted:
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1845 – Reuters estimate People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a ...
Posted:
Reserve Bank of Australia expected to cut its cash rate this week by 25bp The Reserve Bank of Australia is meeting today and tomorrow, Monday, August 11, 2025 and Tuesday, August 12, 2025.After last month's shock decision to hold the cash rate steady in the face of a near unanimous expectation for a rate ...
Posted:
ICYMI - On Saturday Fed Governor Bowman called for 3 FOMC rate cuts this year Michelle Bowman is a Governor on the Board of the U.S. Federal Reserve and as such has a permanent vote on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).Bowman was speaking at a bankers’ conference in Colorado Springs, on Saturday. The Wall ...
Posted:
Newsquawk Week Ahead: US CPI, US Retail Sales, China CPI, RBA, Aussie & UK Jobs Mon: Norwegian CPI (Jul), Japanese Mountain Day HolidayTue: US-China truce deadline (likely to be extended), RBA Announcement (Aug), UK Jobs Report (Jun), German ZEW Survey (Aug), US CPI (Jul), EIA STEO, OPEC MOMRWed: German Final CPI (Jul), Spanish Final CPI ...
Posted:
Fed Board Governor Bowman calls for September rate cut, and another two by year end Michelle Bowman is a Governor on the Board of the U.S. Federal Reserve and as such has a permanent vote on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Bowman citied the collapse in the US labour market in her reasoning arguing ...
Posted:
AUDUSD technicals: The AUDUSD chart is messy, but in the video, I try to make... Yesterday in a post, I spoke about the messy AUDUSD chart (see post here). The view has not changed much today. It is still messy.Neverthess, even amongst the ups and downs, the markets will leave little nuggets from the charts ...
Posted:
EURUSD technicals:The EURUSD is consolidating near the week's highs buy above 50% midpoint The EURUSD began its upside move last Friday after finding support at the 100-day moving average, which served as a strong base for buyers. That momentum extended into this week, with the pair breaking above the 200-hour moving average and ...
Posted:
USDJPY technicals: USDJPY ping-pongs between moving averages The USDJPY has spent this week trading in a well-defined range, bouncing between the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 147.90 and the 200-bar moving average below at 146.78. The 100-bar MA capped rallies on both Monday and ...
Posted:
Feds Musalem: Economic activity appears stable, not increasing or decreasing Economic activity appears stable, not now increasing or decreasingBankers report that funding pressures have diminished, credit quality is goodCompanies continue to report a shortage of skilled laborFirms remain cautious on capital spending and hiringCompanies are using different strategies to adapt ...
Posted:
USDCHF technicals: The buyers and sellers are battling it out in the USDCHF The USDCHF moved lower at the start of the week but found willing buyers near the 200 hour MA. Later in the week, the price rose aided by the price reaction on the Switzerland tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. ...
Posted:
USDCAD technicals: The weaker Canada jobs report has pushed the USDCAD higher. What next? The USDCAD has moved modestly higher after the weaker than expected Canadian jobs report.Employment Change:Actual: -40.8kExpected (Reuters Poll): +13.5kPrior: +83.1k🟥 Major miss – Canada lost jobs instead of gaining as expected.Unemployment Rate:Actual: 6.9%Expected: 7.0%Prior: 6.9%🟩 Slightly better than expected, holding ...
Posted:
Forex Technicals: The USD is higher vs the JPY but little changed vs the EUR... The USD is higher vs the JPY and little changed vs the EUR and the GBP. In the video above, I take a look at the 3 major currency pairs and explain the bias, the risks, the targets. What ...
Posted:
Gold Technical Analysis – The focus turns to the US CPI data Fundamental
OverviewThe bullish momentum has
waned this week as traders turned their attention to the US CPI data coming up next
week. The soft NFP report triggered a quick dovish repricing in interest rates
expectations which fuelled a rally in gold as real yields ...
Posted:
JP Morgan now sees the Fed delivering consecutive rate cuts through to year-end For some context, they had previously forecast the Fed to cut just once more this year and that was for December. Their previous call also showed 50 bps rate cuts in Q1 2026. So, this is very much an acceleration ...
Posted:
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem is speaking on Friday Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem speaks before Mississippi Delta event, "Financial Well-Being in the Delta: a Conversation on Banking, Credit and Small Business" 1420 GMT / 1020 US Eastern time It seems unlikely we'll get much ...
Posted:
Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill is speaking on Friday Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill is speaking on Friday, August 8, 2025gives an online presentation of the central bank's new forecasts and latest policy decisioncoming up at 1115 GMT / 0715 US Eastern timeGBP has found some support ...
Posted:
PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1382 (vs. estimate at 7.1742) The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the ...
Posted:
RBA tipped to cut rates to 3.60% in August (certainty this time!), more likely by... All 40 economists in a Reuters poll expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.60% at its August 12 meeting, following softer inflation and labour market data.Headline inflation fell to 2.1% ...
Posted:
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1742 – Reuters estimate People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a ...
Posted:
Splits evident at Bank Japan on rate hike timing as inflation stays hot, trade risks... The Bank of Japan’s July meeting summary (post is here) revealed a wide range of views among policymakers on the timing and pace of further interest rate hikes, with members weighing persistent inflation pressures against uncertainty from trade policy and ...
Posted:
BoJ July policy meeting 'Summary" contains multiple references to heightened uncertainty Bank of Japan July meeting 'Summary of Opinions'. At this meeting the Bank left its short term rate unchanged at 0.5%, as expected. Headlines via Reuters:One member said BoJ likely to continue raising rates if economy, prices move in line ...
Posted:
AUDUSD Technicals: Market trapped in a messy range between moving averages and swing zones Blur your eyes and look at the price action for the AUDUSD, and you see a lot of ups-and-downs. Since mid-April, the price has been mostly between 0.6354 and 0.6594.Yes, two weeks ago, the price moved to a new high ...
Posted:
USDCAD technicals: The USDCAD is caught between the moving averages The USDCAD remains directionless in the short term, trading within well-defined technical boundaries as market participants await a decisive break.On the 4-hour chart above, price action this week has respected major moving average levels:Tuesday’s high extended up to test the ...
Posted: