Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: PCE inflation unexpectedly coolsUS November core PCE +2.8% y/y vs +2.9% expectedCanada retail sales for October 0.6% versus 0.7% expectedCanada's NDP says they will vote to defeat the Liberal governmentFed's Goolsbee: Nice to get inflation number that is better than expectedFed's Williams: Inflation ...
Market Recap: U.S. stock indices rise today, but close with weekly lossesThe major U.S. stock indices ended the day with gains of 1% or more for all three major benchmarks, but they closed lower for the week. Here’s a detailed snapshot:Closing Levels (Daily Gains):Dow Jones Industrial Average: rose 498.82 points (+1.18%) ...
Dallas Fed trimmed mean November PCE price index +1.8% vs +2.9%Prior was +2.9%These are one-month annualized numbers so small changes led to swings like this. That said, the latest number is one-month running at a sub-2% pace, 11 more to go.6-month annualized: 2.2% vs 2.3% prior12-month: 2.7% unchanged ...
House speaker Johnson: We have a unified agreement among RepublicansJohnson says there will be no government shutdownTalk is cheap, let's get the vote.Update: It sounds like this won't be split into three parts but will just be the bill that failed yesterday but without an extension to the debt ...
Video: The real thing to watch with the new US governmentYesterday I spoke with Dale Pinkert from Forex Analytix about the state of broader markets and a few of the things that have me worried. Here is a summary:Stock Market Trends: Fiscal tightening, political dynamics, and investor sentiment. What will ...
Trump's tariff threats don't seem so badThe fear in markets is that Trump is going to be hitting everyone with tariffs. He's a very tough guy to predict but I'm growing more optimistic.1) The threats to Mexico and Canada are solvableOne of his first post-election tweets ...
House Republican leadership suggests progress on an agreement on the debt limitAccording to Punchbowl News:Republican leadership has proposed a plan addressing the debt limit.The proposal includes raising the debt limit by $1.5 trillion in the first reconciliation package.It also promises to cut $2.5 trillion in net mandatory spending through the reconciliation ...
USDCHF reaches its 200 hour MA and swing area targetThe USDCHF fell below its 100 hour moving average, swing area and upward sloping trendline near 0.8956. That tilted the short-term bias to the downside. That momentum continued to the next key target area defined by the rising 200 hour ...
EURUSD testing the 100 hour MA and near a key swing areaThe EURUSD is stretching higher and it has now broken back above the November 26 swing low at 1.0442 and is testing its falling 100-hour moving average at 1.0443 (blue line on the chart above). Just above that is ...
Trump to demand NATO members spend 5% of GDP on defense - reportCurrently the NATO target is 2% of GDP and 9 of the 32 members don't even hit that.According to the FT, Trump's team has told European officials that he will demand that NATO states spending 5% of GDP on defense ...
GBPUSD breaks higher. The next key target area between 1.2596 and 1.26147The GBP/USD has extended its recovery after reaching its lowest level since May 10, with the decline bottoming out at 1.24739, just below the November low at 1.24865. Early in the US session, the pair began to reverse course with ...
US Congress may vote on three separate billsCNN's Sahil Kapur reports on a new plan to vote on three separate bills in Congress:Clean continuing resolution Disaster relief Agriculture/farmer aidThe key here is what's in the continuing resolution and how long it will prevent a government shutdown for?Whatever the details, ...
European equity close: Down but well-above the lowsIt was looking like a brutal day for European stocks but there has been a major turn in markets following the better PCE report and dip-buying ahead of a potential US government deal/Closing changes on the day:Stoxx 600 -0.8%German DAX ...
Democrat Jeffries says 'lines of communication' reopened with JohnsonCongressional Republicans are in a real jam.They need to either make a deal with Democrats (or at least a few dozen of them) to pass a bi-partisan continuing resolution and defy Trump; or they need to follow Trump's instructions, shut ...
Canada's NDP says they will vote to defeat the Liberal governmentThe NDP has been the propping up the minority Liberal government since the 2021 election. It was a formal alliance for most of that time but lately it's be one-off partnership.Now, with the Liberals in disarray, the NDP says it's ...
Canada October budget balance C$-1.49 billion vs previous C$-3.17 billionBudget Deficit: Canada recorded a slightly lower budget deficit of C$14.50 billion ($10.09 billion) for the first seven months of the 2024/25 fiscal year compared to C$15.13 billion in the same period last year.Program Expenses: Increased by 9.8% across all ...
Fed's Goolsbee: Nice to get inflation number that is better than expectedNice to get inflation number that is better than expectedThere is more uncertainty noiseStill on path to get to 2% inflation.Today stations recent ferment was a bump.Next 12 to 18 months, rates can go down a paramount.Employment is stable, want ...
University of Michigan consumer sentiment final 74.0 versus 74.0 preliminaryPrior month 71.8consumer sentiment Index 74.0 versus 74.0 estimate 74.0 preliminary. Last month 71.8. Best reading since AprilCurrent conditions 75.1 versus 77.7 preliminary and 63.9 last month. Best since April still. Expectations 73.3 versus 71.6 preliminary and 76.9 last month. ...
US stocks lower but not like the premarket levelsThe major US stock indices are opening day lower but well off the premarket levels thanks in part to the better-than-expected PCE data, and the hopes that a solution to the Washington problems will ultimately be found. The numbers are ...
Why this US government shutdown is different for marketsJim Cramer was on CNBC this morning highlighting that the trade is always to buy US government shutdowns and market selloffs. He highlighted the history and it's unassailable.I've written the same thing a hundred times over the years.Here is why ...
US dollar dips as inflation data runs cooler than expectedNovember US PCE inflation data ran cooler than the Fed expected. The month-over-month reading on core inflation was +0.1149% while headline was +0.1280%. Those are both at annual paces slower than 1.5%, which is well below the Fed target.The numbers ...
Fed's Williams: Inflation data since Sept has been 'a touch higher'Recent economic data is consistent with Fed projectionsMonetary policy is well positioned, is somewhat restrictiveInflation data since Sept has been 'a touch higher' and economy 'a touch stronger' than expectedHopes disinflation process will continue but lots of uncertaintyNext year expects ...
Canada retail sales for October 0.6% versus 0.7% expectedPrior month 0.4% revised to 0.6%Canada retail sales 0.6% vs 0.7% expectedex Auto 0.1% versus 0.5% expected.Prior month ex auto revised higher to 1.1% from 0.9%Core retail sales—which exclude gasoline stations and fuel vendors and motor vehicle and parts ...
US November core PCE +2.8% y/y vs +2.9% expectedPrior was +2.8%Core PCE (excluding food & energy):&]:mt-2 list-disc space-y-2 pl-8" depth="0">Core m/m +0.1% vs +0.2% expUnrounded core PCE +0.1149% vs +0.274% m/m priorPCE excluding food, energy and housing +0.1% m/m vs +0.3% m/m prior (revised to +0.2%)Headline PCE:&]:mt-2 list-disc ...
Trump sounds indifferent to a government shutdownI'm not sure what the strategy is here.Trump also wrote this:Congress must get rid of, or extend out to, perhaps, 2029, the ridiculous Debt Ceiling. Without this, we should never make a deal. Remember, the pressure is on whoever is ...
Keep a close eye on Canadian politics today. Trudeau could step downIt increasingly looks like we're in the end-game of Justin Trudeau's Liberals. They've been far behind in the polls for two years and sinking further despite some last-ditch efforts to right the ship.Finance Minister Chyrstia Freeland left cabinet on Monday ...
Fed's Daly: The recalibration phase is now overProgress on inflation has slowed relative to what we wantedWe don't know what the incoming administration will do, so for me it's about the dataRisks to the outlook are equally balancedI saw this cut as a close callThe recalibration phase ...
ECB's Lane: We only have to be restrictive if inflation momentum is above 2%But what we see now is inflation momentum more in the direction of being around 2%In other words, he's saying the ECB need not be restrictive anymore considering the latest inflation developments. Sure, sure. I'm certain they're not speeding up ...
USDCHF Technical Analysis – The FOMC spike is getting fadedFundamental OverviewThe USD got a boost from the FOMC decision as the market perceived it as more hawkish than expected. Overall, apart from some slight tweaks, the Fed matched the market’s pricing. Nonetheless, the market reacted in a big way pushing Treasury yields higher and ...
GBPUSD Technical Analysis - Will the November low hold?Fundamental OverviewThe USD got a boost from the FOMC decision as the market perceived it as more hawkish than expected. Overall, apart from some slight tweaks, the Fed matched the market’s pricing. Nonetheless, the market reacted in a big way pushing Treasury yields higher and ...
EURUSD Technical Analysis – The pair is challenging the 2024 lowFundamental OverviewThe USD got a boost from the FOMC decision as the market perceived it as more hawkish than expected. Overall, apart from some slight tweaks, the Fed matched the market’s pricing. Nonetheless, the market reacted in a big way pushing Treasury yields higher and ...
USDJPY Technical Analysis – Deadly mix sends the pair higherFundamental OverviewThe USD got a boost from the FOMC decision as the market perceived it as more hawkish than expected. Overall, apart from some slight tweaks, the Fed matched the market’s pricing. Nonetheless, the market reacted in a big way pushing Treasury yields higher and ...
New Zealand credit card spending -3.2% y/y in November (prior +0.3%)New Zealand credit card spending for December 2024-3.2% y/yprior +0.3%%-1.3% m/mprior+0.4%Poor data. The GDP data yesterday was terrible, showing NZ in a recession. I noted later there were 'green shoots' emerging for the NZ economy in Q4. This data set ...
Japan fin min Kato with verbal intervention on JPY - recent one-side, sharp yen movesJapan fin min Kato with verbal intervention on yenNo comment on FX levelsRecently seeing one-sided, sharp movesImportant for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentalsWill take appropriate action against excessive movesConcerned about recent FX moves, including those driven ...
People's Bank of China Loan Prime Rate (LPR) setting due today - why its less...In 2024, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) implemented significant reforms to its monetary policy framework to enhance the effectiveness of its policy transmission and better support economic growth.Shift to the 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate as the Main Policy Rate:Traditionally, ...
USD/JPY hits a 5-month high just shy of 158.00Yen weakening after the Bank of Japan left its short term cash rate unchanged at its meeting yesterday. ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Bank of Japan leaves rates unchanged, yen slumpsForexLive European FX news wrap: Yen tumbles on Ueda, BOE ...
Federal Reserve monetary policy has entered a new phase - may be quite differentRick Rieder, BlackRock's Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income.In summary. Federal Reserve Policy:The U.S. is entering a new phase of the rate-cutting cycle, distinct from the prior quarters.The Federal Funds Rate has been reduced to around 4%, which is ...
Crude oil futures settles at $69.38, down -$0.64 or 0.91%The price of crude oil futures are settling at $69.38. That is down -$0.64 or -0.91% on the day High of $70.54/bbl, low of $69.22/bbl.The price stayed below the 100 day MA at $71 him .14. It will take ...
Bitcoin moving down and away from $100KThe price of bitcoin has reached a low of $96782 and bounced modestly. The digital currency currently traders at $98434 down -$1739 or -1.71% on the day. Looking at the hourly chart, the price moved below the 100 and 200 ...
GBPUSD falls to new session lowsThe GBPUSD is moving to new lows and in the process is chipping away at the November lows. The next downside targets will look toward the swing lows from NOvember 26 at 1.2506 and then the low from November ...
BOE's Bailey: Market rate pricing for February is in a reasonable placeCan't say when particular rate cuts will take placeShould not over-interpret latest wage dataThe market is pricing at 46% for a February cut and has priced in 52 bps in easing in 2025.Cable is struggling and giving back earlier gains. ...
The lesson from Powell: It's kind of fallen apartThe key line from Powell at Wedensday's FOMC press conference was "it's kind of fallen apart", which isn't the kind of thing you want to hear from a Fed chair in any context.But what was the context? A reporter asks ...
BOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 4.75%, as expectedPrior 4.75%Bank rate vote 6-3 vs 8-1 expected (Dhingra, Ramsden, Taylor voted to cut bank rate by 25 bps)A gradual approach to removing monetary policy restraint remains appropriateWe can't commit to when or by how much we will cut rates ...
ECB's Patsalides: I prefer small, gradual rate cutsDon't see persistent economic stagnation, inflation undershootingA 50 bps move would require projections showing persistent undershooting of inflationDon't see a situation where rates would need to fall below neutralEuro weakness not creating inflationary pressuresThe message has been consistent across the ...
ECB's Šimkus: Inflation risks are balanced for next yearInflation risks may shift to the downside in 2026But easing direction for monetary policy is clearThe economic environment will determine the terminal rateIt is best to keep a consistent pace towards the neutral rateOnce again, it just echoes similar remarks ...