Here is the TD data center note that has everyone buzzing AI hype and data-center capex have been major market drivers in the past year but there is some angst lately about how much is being spent and whether there is a real business case for it all. That really kicked ...
Posted:
Weekly Market Outlook (24-28 February) UPCOMING
EVENTS:Monday: German IFO.Tuesday: US Consumer Confidence.Wednesday: Australia Monthly CPI.Thursday: Switzerland Q4 GDP, US Durable Goods Orders, US
Q4 GDP (2nd estimate), US Jobless Claims.Friday: Tokyo CPI, France CPI, Germany CPI, Canada GDP,
...
Posted:
Video: How everything could go right for the Canadian dollar The Canadian dollar is facing risks from tariffs, trade, global growth, domestic housing, politics and energy. Plenty could go wrong but there is a brighter path that's possible too. On Friday I spoke in an interview with BNNBloomberg about what ...
Posted:
German election preview: History will be made on Sunday, what to watch for On Sunday, German voters go to the polls in a high-contested election. The first exit polls will land Sunday at 6 pm CET (noon in New York) and the first results will be from 30 minutes later with continued updates ...
Posted:
Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Stocks take a nosedive, inflation expectations jump UMich final February consumer sentiment 64.7 versus 67.8 expectedUS long-term inflation expectations hit a 30-year high in the UMich surveyCanada December retail sales +2.5% vs +1.6% expectedUS existing home sales for January. 4.08 million versus 4.12 million estimateFed's Goolsbee: Steel ...
Posted:
Trump wants EU to lower tariffs and now they are being "very nice" Comments from Trump:Russia wants to do a dealPutin and Zelensky need to work togetherThinking about merging the US postal service with Commerce DeptUS will soon impose reciprocal tariffsI think that comment on Europe is another sign that Trump isn't planning ...
Posted:
AUDUSD falls as risk-off sentiment and technical sellers push the pair lower The AUDUSD moved higher yesterday as the USD weakened, bringing the pair within 5 pips of the 38.2% retracement level from the September 2024 high. Just above that, the falling 100-day moving average (MA) also acted as resistance. Sellers leaned ...
Posted:
Pain in the stock market: 8 things are adding up to an ugly selloff US stock markets are under some heavy pressure today with the S&P 500 down 1.5% and the Russell 2000 down 2.5%.Some worries have been building for awhile and at the moment I don't think it's one single thing. It's a ...
Posted:
Fed's Goolsbee: Steel tariffs will raise production costs in region Fed's Goolsbee is lurking around saying that:Steel tariffs will raise production costs in the region. He has spoken a few times this week. As a result, what he says will likely not impact the markets. Yesterday, Goolsbee commented on ...
Posted:
USDJPY falls below the 50% midpoint The USDJPY has moved below the 50% midpoint of the move up from the September 2024 low at 149.22. The low just reached 148.98. The price is also below a swing area between 149.078 and 149.39. Sellers looking for ...
Posted:
Baker Hughes oil rig count rises -7 in the current week Baker Hughes rig count for the week shows:Oil rigs up 7 at 488Natural gas rigs down -2 at 99Total rigs +4 at 592Crude oil is down -1 dollar anyone cents or -2.5% at $70.67.For the trading week, the high this ...
Posted:
Stocks lower. Yields lower. USD mixed. The US yields are trading at session lows with the 10-year yield now down -6.8 basis points. The 2 year is down -3.8 basis points. The fall in yields is being impacted by lower stocks (flight to safety) as Univ ...
Posted:
BOC Macklem. Monetary policy must ensure higher prices do not become ongoing inflation BOC Macklem is speaking and says:2026 monetary policy framework renewal should leave 2% inflation target unchanged"Now is not the time to question the anchor that has proven so effective," says MacklemBOC's focus will be on how it can improve the ...
Posted:
Geopolitics: Trump says that Netanyahu is not torn about the way forward in Gaza war Pres. Trump is saying that is Isreal's Netanyahu is "not torn" about the way forward in Gaza war.He "wants to go in"Asked if he prefers the 2nd phase of hostage release or go after Hamas, Trump said "I can go ...
Posted:
GBPUSD falls away from 100 day MA after breaks above fail. Buyers had their shot... The GBPUSD spent the first half of the week trading choppily around the 38.2% retracement of the September high to January low at 1.26076, reflecting market indecision.On Wednesday, after a move lower, buyers stepped in just ahead of the 1.25499 ...
Posted:
7 things to watch for the Canadian dollar and the case for a turnaround Canada is at the nexus of several major trends that will unfold in the second half of the decade. It's a big challenge but it's also a huge opportunity that could unlock a geographically-gifted country that's trading at a discount.Things ...
Posted:
No comments from the Fed's Jefferson on the economic outlook Jefferson is at a conference in San Francisco so I would expect a Q&A, though it's not clear that one is scheduled.
This article was ...
Posted:
The USDCHF is holding swing area support. Buyers leaning and staying in play. The USDCHF started the week with an upward move, peaking on Wednesday, before reversing lower through Wednesday and Thursday. Friday’s price action has been choppy, with no clear directional momentum.From a technical perspective, the key takeaway is that the weekly ...
Posted:
US long-term inflation expectations hit a 30-year high in the UMich survey Did people really think Donald Trump was going to lower grocery prices?For all the thinking and analyzing people do about the election, there was one party that oversaw a spike in inflation and Donald Trump who said he was going ...
Posted:
USDCAD keeps a technical lid on the rebound. Sellers in control. The USDCAD began the week near its lowest level since mid-December. After an early rebound, the pair moved above the falling 100-hour moving average (blue line) on Wednesday, extending gains toward the 200-hour moving average (green line) on both Wednesday ...
Posted:
US existing home sales for January. 4.08 million versus 4.12 million estimate Prior month 4.24M annualized sales pace revised to 4.29MExisting home sales for January 2025 4.08M vs estimates of 4.12M. Existing home sales -4.9% Home supply 3.5 months versus 3.3 months last monthOther detals from the NAR Realtors showed:The median existing-home ...
Posted:
UMich final February consumer sentiment 64.7 versus 67.8 expected Prior month 71.1Current conditions 65.7 vs 68.7 prelimCurrent conditions 74.0 priorExpectations 64.0 vs 67.3 prelimExpectations prior 69.3One-year inflation 4.3% vs 4.3% prelimFive-year inflation 3.5% vs 3.3% prelimA fall to 64.7 from 71.1 is dramatic for this indicator and puts ...
Posted:
S&P Global US February flash services PMI 49.7 vs 53.0 expected Prior was 52.9Manufacturing 51.6 vs 51.5 expectedPrior manufacturing was 51.2Composite PMI 50.4 vs 52.7 prior "New order growth also
weakened sharply and business expectations for the
year ahead slumped amid growing concerns and
uncertainty related to federal government policies" the report ...
Posted:
Trump will sign memorandum today to counter digital taxes hated by big tech - report Trump expected to sign a fresh memorandum today that would open the door to retaliation for digital services taxes.Silicon Valley has taken over the White House and the agenda they're pushing is clear: Don't get in our way, let us ...
Posted:
EURUSD buyers stall the fall at the 100 hour MA.That hold increases the levels importance The EURUSD fell to the week's lows on Wednesday, testing the 200-hour moving average (MA) and the 38.2% retracement of the February trading range. Support held, leading to a bounce higher. On Thursday, the price extended its recovery, moving back ...
Posted:
Eyes on Ukraine as intense talks continue. Russia could help fund reconstruction There are a couple of notable reports on Ukraine today and both point to a near-term conclusion of the war.The first is from Reuters, which reports that Russia could agree to using part of the $300 billion of sovereign ...
Posted:
USDJPY bounces off the 50% midpoint target area. Is the bottom in place? The USDJPY moved sharply lower yesterday, testing the high of a key swing area between 149.08 and 149.39, with the low reaching 149.39. In the Asian session, the price dipped further to 149.27, pushing deeper into the swing area and ...
Posted:
What are the best-performing assets since covid This week is the five-year anniversary of covid really kicking off and today Deutsche Bank looks back at the performance of a broad range of assets and how they've performed since. They also highlight performance since the Ukraine war, which ...
Posted:
Canada December retail sales +2.5% vs +1.6% expected Prelim December estimate was +1.6%November sales were +0.0%Retail sales ex-autos +2.7% vs +1.8% expectedPrior ex-autos were -0.7% Core sales +2.5% vs -1.0% prior2024 retail sales rose 1.3%January advanced sales -0.4%Full reportThere were early indications of a weak January number but ...
Posted:
Big night for Canada last night, big economic data coming up Team Canada beat the USA in overtime last night to win the 4 Nations Challenge and that's sure put Canadians in a good mood today.Unfortunately, it will be a short-lived buzz with the economy on uneven footing, Trump threatening tariffs ...
Posted:
ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar slightly higher in final stretch of the week Headlines:Dollar holds steadier so far on the sessionFrance February flash services PMI 44.5 vs 48.9 expectedGermany February flash manufacturing PMI 46.1 vs 45.5 expectedEurozone February flash services PMI 50.7 vs 51.5 expectedUK February flash services PMI 51.1 vs 50.8 expectedUK ...
Posted:
Russia says no interim contact expected before Trump-Putin meeting Russia says that "there are no specifics yet" on a possible Trump-Putin meeting, so it might even take place after next week. However, they note that both Trump and Putin are keen to talk in person. From the Kremlin:"There is ...
Posted:
Dollar holds steadier so far on the session The dollar is keeping a little higher on the day but we're still yet to get to the US PMI data later. So far, a slightly weaker French PMI data is weighing on the euro a bit while the yen ...
Posted:
EURUSD Technical Analysis – The focus switches to the US PMIs Fundamental
OverviewThe US Dollar this week has
been erasing some of the losses experienced last week after the benign US PPI
and the Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announcement. There hasn’t been any notable
catalyst this week to support the greenback although some analysts pointed to
less ...
Posted:
UK February flash services PMI 51.1 vs 50.8 expected Services PMI 51.1 vs 50.8 expected vs. 50.8 priorManufacturing PMI 46.4 vs 48.4 expected vs. 48.3
priorComposite PMI 50.5 vs 50.5 expected and 50.6 prior.Key findings:Flash UK PMI Composite Output Index: 50.5 (Jan: 50.6).
2-month low.
Flash UK ...
Posted:
Italy January final CPI +1.5% vs +1.5% y/y prelim Prio +1.3% HICP +1.7% vs +1.7% y/y prelimPrior +1.4%
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Posted:
USDJPY Technical Analysis – JPY strength resumes as Treasury yields fall Fundamental
OverviewThe US Dollar this week has
been erasing some of the losses experienced last week after the benign US PPI
and the Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announcement. There hasn’t been any notable
catalyst this week to support the greenback although some analysts pointed to
less ...
Posted:
BOJ Ueda says policy still accommodative, will adjust if underlying prices rise Bank of Japan Governor Ueda:Accommodative environment continuesWill adjust monetary policy if underlying prices raiseUnderlying inflation is still slightly below 2%On that last point ... that's not what today's data showed:Japan's Core Inflation Hits 19-Month High, Strengthening Expectations for BOJ Rate ...
Posted:
BoJUeda says hike to 50bp interest rates will boost interest payments on reserves 1tln yen Bank of Japan Governor Ueda A hike to 50bp interest rates will boost interest payments for reserves by JPY 1tln
There could be more side effects from monetary easing
More interest rate hikes could come into sight if the price outlook continues ...
Posted:
BOJ Governor Ueda warns loss of mkt confidence in Japan fiscal could drive JGB yields... Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Rise in long-term interest rates reflects modest economic recovery, rising price trendGenerally speaking, loss of market confidence in Japan's fiscal health could drive interest ratesRising yield a hot topic in Japan: More on Japan’s finance ...
Posted:
USD/JPY volatility persists - it rose around 150 points from its earlier session low Its been a wild move for USD/JPY during the session, its risen and risen ever since the inflation data earlier. A huge move. But then you view it the context of the fall preceding it and ... well, maybe not ...
Posted:
Japan's Core Inflation Hits 19-Month High, Strengthening Expectations for BOJ Rate Hikes Japan’s core consumer inflation accelerated in January, reaching 3.2% year-on-year—its fastest pace in 19 months—according to data released earlier:Japan January Core CPI 3.2% y/y vs. 3.1% expectedThe stronger-than-expected increase reinforces expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may continue raising ...
Posted:
More from BOJ's Ueda - Ready to respond to abnormal market moves Bank of Japan Governor Ueda:Our basic stance is that market forces determine long-term interest rate levels.We expect long-term interest rates to fluctuate to some extent depending on the market's view on the economic outlook.If markets make abnormal moves, we stand ...
Posted:
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda sees the bright side of higher interest rates Bank of Japan Governor Ueda:BOJ's massive monetary easing, including YCC, was a necessary process towards achieving our price target.We acknowledge BOJ's massive stimulus has caused various side effects.From a long-term perspective, rising interest rates will help improve financial institutions' profits.Rise ...
Posted:
RBNZ Chief Economist Conway - OCR forecasts indicate another 75bp easing Reserve Bank of New Zealand Chief Economist Paul Conway speaks in interviewNZD drop will boost export revenuesOutput gap will help contain inflation pressuresOCR forecasts indicate another 75bp easingWeaker New Zealand dollar will aid economic recoveryWilling to look through inflation uptick ...
Posted:
PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1696 (vs. estimate at 7.2433) The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the ...
Posted:
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2433 – Reuters estimate People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a ...
Posted:
Chinese financial media says PBOC LPRs have room to fall further China Securities Daily says that Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) have room to move lower. Not sure why they'd be saying this today? Are Chinese stocks going to get pummeled today?Yesterday:PBOC sets 1 year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.1% ...
Posted:
Japan finance minister Kato - higher long term rates can pressure Japan's fiscal situation Japan finance minister Kato - higher long term rates can pressure Japan's fiscal situation
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
Posted:
RBA Bullock says did not want to be late to easing Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock.Wage data came in as expected, labour market still strong.Still have a tight labour market, think it's a little too tight.Board did not want to be late in easing.Board aware of long and variable lags ...
Posted:
Fed's Kugler says watching labour market layoffs like a hawk Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler spoke earlier:Fed's Kugler says Fed Funds rate is moderately restrictiveFed's Kugler says she thinks the Fed should not cut interest rates again for some timeFed's Kugler says will have to wait to assess the ...
Posted:
USDCHF moves toward low of trading range since mid-December As the trading day nears its close, USDCHF is testing the lower boundary of its multi-week trading range, which has been in place since mid-December. On the 4-hour chart, the pair formed a double top at the January high two ...
Posted:
GBPUSD tests 100 day MA/swing area. Key level for buyers and sellers. The GBPUSD is trading to a new high and in the process is testing a key swing area up to 1.2670 and the 100-day MA at 1.2666. The high price just reached 1.2670. This is a key technical level for ...
Posted:
US crude oil futures settled $72.57 US crude oil futures settled at $72.57, gaining $0.32 (+0.44%) on the day. Prices ranged between a low of $71.76 and a high of $73.10.On the hourly chart, today’s low found support near the 200-hour moving average, reinforcing its importance ...
Posted:
USDJPY stretches to the swing area and the 50% retracement USDJPY broke below its yearly low and February low at 150.943, accelerating downside momentum. The decline extended to 149.39, aligning with the upper boundary of a key swing area dating back to mid-August 2024 (149.08 - 149.39). This level also ...
Posted:
EURUSD races above swing area topside target with little resistance EURUSD Technical Analysis: Bullish Breakout Continues Toward Key ResistanceEURUSD is extending its upside momentum, breaking above the key swing area between 1.0452 and 1.0467 with little resistance. This breakout has triggered follow-through buying, pushing the pair to a session high ...
Posted:
USDCAD breaks below the 100 hour MA. Can the momentum lower continue? USDCAD has been oscillating between the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages since breaking above them during the European session yesterday. The pair found support at the 100-hour MA in early U.S. trading but faced selling pressure at the 200-hour MA ...
Posted:
US dollar moves to new lows. What are the technicals telling traders now? The USD is moving to fresh session lows versus all of the major currency pairs. Yields are lower in the US with the tenure down -3.2 basis points.Below I take a look at some of the technical center driving the ...
Posted:
The USD is lower to start the US session. What are the technical telling traders... The USD is lower in early US trading with the USDJPY the biggest mover. In the video above, I take a look at the EURUSD, the USDJPY and the GBPUSD from a technical perspective:EURUSD: The EURUSD declined yesterday, testing the ...
Posted:
AUDUSD Technical Analysis – The AUD outperforms on a series of positive news Fundamental
OverviewThe US Dollar this week has
been erasing some of the losses experienced last week after the benign US PPI
and the Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announcement. There hasn’t been any notable
catalyst this week to support the greenback although some analysts pointed to
less ...
Posted:
Euro Trade Idea with a 'tradeCompass approach' to partial profit taking SHORT Trade Plan for Euro FX Futures (6E) – 20 Feb 2025tradeCompass ApproachWhile this is a short trade idea, we use the tradeCompass approach to provide partial profit exits for traders to consider, making this a specific case of a ...
Posted:
USDCHF Technical Analysis – Some days of relief for the greenback Fundamental
OverviewThe US Dollar this week has
been erasing some of the losses experienced last week after the benign US PPI
and the Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announcement. There hasn’t been any notable
catalyst this week to support the greenback although some analysts pointed to
less ...
Posted:
Gold Technical Analysis – Lack of bearish news keeps the bulls in charge Fundamental
OverviewGold eventually did erase
the losses triggered by the US Retail Sales data and added to the gains
breaking into a new all-time high. The market continues to move upwards by
inertia amid a lack of bearish news for the precious metal.Real yields ...
Posted:
Palantir trades down close to 15% on defense spending cuts The price of Palantir is trading down $-15 or -12% at $109.48 after Pres. Trump ordered the Pentagon to cut budget by 8%. The price of Palantir reached a new all-time high of $125.41 in trading today before rotating ...
Posted:
S&P and NASDAQ index trade to new session highs The S&P and NASDAQ indices are positive on the day and trading near session highs. S&P index is up 14.15 points or 0.23% at 6143.79. Yesterday index closed at a record high. Anything positive today would be a another ...
Posted:
USDCAD ping pongs between hourly MAs. Buyers and sellers battle. USDCAD fell earlier in the session, testing the 100-hour moving average (1.4195), a key short-term pivot. As noted earlier, holding above this level would indicate continued bullish momentum, while a break below would shift control back to sellers. The support ...
Posted:
EURUSD sellers push the pair to the support target at 1.0405 level. Key target for... In my kickstart video, I highlighted the 1.0432 - 1.0441 zone as key topside resistance that buyers needed to break through to gain control. This area was defined by previous resistance and support levels dating back to early February. A ...
Posted: