Williams: Expects tariff impact to play out into the middle of next yearBond market more focused on economic fundamentals right nowBond market is relatively calm right nowFed needs to keep economy on track and allow tariffs to pass throughMy base case is tariffs stay in place but I do consider other scenariosCore ...
Fed's Williams says he expects rates to come down gradually over timeIt's bizarre that Trump is completely politicizing the Fed over the pace of rate cuts. I don't think there is anyone at the Fed who is significantly more dovish than Williams and they all see the same destination, it's just ...
US EIA weekly oil inventories +2415K vs -2031K expectedPrior was -2392KDistillate +1681K vs -598K expGasoline -3795K vs -1068K expThe gasoline number helps to balance it out a tad but this isn't a great report for crude. On the kneejerk though, there market is largely unmoved. ...
Miran says tightening US borders is 'deflationary'It's not really surprising that Miran is following Trump's talking points in his Fed nomination but I would like to see the argument for how deporting low-wage workers is deflationary. I guess you can argue that pushing people out can ...
Miran: No one in the Trump admin has asked me to lower ratesThat sound believable.Miran is also saying that he doesn't plan to resign from the President's Council of Economic Advisors but rather take a leave because the term is only until January.In any case, none of this matters because the Senate ...
ISM August services PMI 52.0 vs 51.0 expectedPrior was 50.1Business activity 55.0 vs 53.0 expectedPrior business activity 52.6New orders 56.0 vs 50.3 priorEmployment 46.5 vs 46.4 priorPrices 69.2 vs 69.9 priorThe pickup in new orders is encouraging and runs counter to the poor reading on that metric ...
US September S&P Global final services PMI 54.5 vs 55.4 prelimPrelim was 55.4Prior was 55.7Composite 54.6 vs 55.1 priorThe absolute number here is a solid one and suggests that the economy is ok at the moment but the declines in business optimism are forward looking and might be problematic. They ...
August US ADP employment +54K vs +65K expectedPrior was +104K (revised to +106K)Goods producing +13KService providing +42KTrade/transportation/utilities -17,000Leisure/hospitality 50,000Median pay for job stayers +4.4% vs 4.4% priorMedian pay for job changers +7.1% vs 7.0% priorThis isn't a great reading but it's not like jobs are falling off ...
investingLive European markets wrap: A steadier mood awaiting more US dataHeadlines:Dollar holds steady as traders eye US data in second half of the weekUS, Japan reportedly in final stages of talks to bring down auto tariffsSwitzerland August CPI +0.2% vs +0.2% y/y expectedEurozone July retail sales -0.5% vs -0.2% m/m ...
ADP US jobs data coming up nextYesterday's soft JOLTS report and downtrodden Beige Book led to a solid bid in bonds that weighed on the US dollar. Today we will get a series of notable economic data points, starting with ADP at 8:15 am ET. Given ...
US August Challenger layoffs 85.979k vs 62.075k priorUS-based employers announced 85,979 job cuts for the month of August this year. Compared to the same month last year, job cuts were up by roughly 13%. And much like what we saw last month, this marks the highest number ...
Eurozone July retail sales -0.5% vs -0.2% m/m expectedPrior +0.3%; revised to +0.6%That's a bit of a downer but just be mindful that it comes amid a more positive revision to the June estimate. The breakdown shows that sales for food, drinks, tobacco declined by 1.1% while automotive ...
US, Japan reportedly in final stages of talks to bring down auto tariffsThe report says that the two sides are in the final stages of talks to implement lower tariffs on Japanese auto imports within two weeks after the issuance of a US presidential executive order. The tariffs rate reduction will be ...
UK August construction PMI 45.5 vs 45.0 expectedPrior 44.3That's a slight bounce back after the fall in July, which saw the worst reading in a little over five years. But still, the below 50.0 reading means construction activity and output reflected another notable decline on the month. ...
German economy set to only grow by 0.1% in 2025 - IfWThe institute sees the German economy expanding by 0.1% this year, edging back up after two years of contraction. They see improved business expectations as being one to lift economic prospects, helped by higher government spending. However, US tariffs policy ...
Germany August construction PMI 46.0 vs 46.3 priorPrior 46.3After hitting a 29-month high in July, German construction activity is seen moderating slightly in August. Of note, new orders continued to decline sharply but there are some positives. Civil engineering activity returns back to growth territory in August ...
Switzerland August CPI +0.2% vs +0.2% y/y expectedPrior +0.2%Core CPI +0.7% y/yPrior +0.8%The key figure is the core annual inflation estimate and that is just marginally lower from July. Overall, it doesn't do much to change the current SNB outlook. ...
Another weak US jobs data to be expected this Friday - Goldman SachsGoldman Sachs notes that the US jobs data this week should continue to show signs of weakening but not to a point of a collapse. The firm estimates non-farm payrolls to underwhelm slightly at +60K with the risks being skewed ...
Trump on Russia-Ukraine peace deal: We are going to get it doneI've been talking about it with Putin and ZelenskySomething is going to happen, but they are not ready yetWe are going to get it doneThe comments come after he was prompted on the growing uncertainty over a potential face-to-face meeting ...
Gold analysis for today after another ATH yesterdayGold Futures Analysis for Today with tradeCompass (September 4, 2025)Gold futures map for today: activation rules at 3,600, bullish above 3,622, bearish below 3,597.8 (after a pop over 3,600). Targets and risk plan inside.Summary (quick map)Instrument: Gold futures (GC) Current price: ...
The bond market bends but don't break just yetWhile long-end yields are blowing up all across the globe this week, a big one to watch was whether or not 30-year Treasury yields are going to see a break above the key 5% threshold. 30-year yields in Japan hit ...
Gold continues its drop in Asia, towards $3525 nowGold being hammered down from its record high. Chinese selling noted. I posted the weekly chart to show the great runs its had, and who's to say it sfinished? ...
PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1052 (vs. estimate at 7.1405)The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB).The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan ...
HSBC sees S&P 500 bull case at 7,000 after earnings strengthHSBC has lifted its year-end S&P 500 forecast to 6,500 from 6,400, its second upgrade in less than a month, citing stronger-than-expected second-quarter earnings and only a modest drag from tariffs. "We revise our S&P 500 year-end target to 6500 ...
ICYMI: RBA Gov Bullock warned "there may not be any interest rate declines yet to...Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock spoke in Perth, Australia, on Wednesday. Bullock remarked on the Q2 GDP data released earlier that day, that showed a very-strong consumer spending number (Consumption jumped 0.9%, and Pricing for near term Reserve Bank ...
Japanese political turmoil threatens to continue to weigh on the yenA snippet from MUFG, analysts at the bank argue that if PM Ishiba is forced out a fresh leader could spurge on spending. There is renewed speculation that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba could step down following his party’s loss of ...
Republican Senator puts his foot down on Lisa Cook sagaFed Governor Lisa Cook got a lifeline today as Republican Senator Thom Tillis said he would not consider a nominee to replace Cook until the legality of Trump's move to fire her is sorted out.Republicans hold a 13-11 majority on ...
Beige Book: Most districts reported little or no change in economic activityThe report was prepared by the Philly FedMost firms either reported little to no change in optimism or expressed differing expectations about the direction of change from their contactsTen districts characterized price growth as moderate or modestThis isn't a great ...
Fed's Kashkari: Fed is not done with work to bring inflation back to 2%Fed is not done with work to bring inflation back to 2%Inflation is still too high but labor market showing signs of coolingFed is getting into a tricky situation with mandatesThe vote split at the September meeting will be an ...
Gold cracks $3560 to hit a fresh record highNothing shines like gold, especially in a world that's being torn apart by petty politics and the undermining of the global institutions that have lifted billions of people out of poverty.It obviously ends in money printing, because it always ends ...
Fed's Bostic: A single quarter-point rate cut still likely appropriate this yearFirms can't absorb higher tariffs much longerRemains unclear how consumer spending will evolveBusinesses still expect a solid year, other evidence indicates Fed policy is not overly restrictiveFull implication of trade policy, other changes, remain unclearUS remains near full employmentPrice stability ...
BOE's Bailey: Underlying driver of steeper UK yield curve is globalI think path for rates will continue to be downwardsUpward risks to UK inflation come from the supply sideShould not over-focus on 30-year gilt ratesUK 30s hit the highest yield this week since 1998. Bailey is in damage control.Lombardelli:I think ...
Bank of England policymakers highlight policy riftsThe Bank of England is out with its annual report and it contains comments from MPC members Clare Lombardelli and Alan Taylor. They highlight the differing vies on the path of policy as the market prices in about a 35% ...
Fed's Musalem: Current restrictive policy is in the right place given dataFed needs to balance inflation and jobs goals going forwardThere's a risk tariffs could cause a persistent inflation riseExpects inflation to ebb back to 2% by the second half of 2026Jobs market break even is between 30-80K per monthUncertainty lifting ...
Fed's Waller: When the labor market turns, it usually turns fastWe should cut at the next meetingWe don't have to cut at every meetingI'm not worried about tariff inflation but people areYou know you're going to have a surge in inflation from tariffs but it's not permanentWe can always adjust ...
BOJ governor Ueda: There is no change to our stance on rate hikesExchanged views with PM Ishiba on economy, financial markets in a regular meetingHad discussion on various topics about the economy, forexExchange rate should move in a manner that is reflecting fundamentalsNo change to our stance on rate hikesNo change to ...
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda is meeting with Japan PM IshibaBank of Japan Governor Ueda is meeting with Japan PM Ishiba. The two meet at least twice a year, this seems to be one of those regular meetings.There is much to discuss, including Japan bond rates ramping higher, which will ...
PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1108 (vs. estimate at 7.1476)The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the ...
WTI crude oil settles higher by $1.58It was a nice day for the oil bulls as crude settled higher by $1.58 to $65.59. It's the highest for WTI since August 7.I don't know if I would read too much into the upside at this point, given ...
Oil prices turn higher after being bounced aroundThe focus in commodity markets today is undoubtedly on previous metals but oil is trading at the best levels since August 6. WTI crude is up $1.65 to $65.66 in volatile trading that saw a $1 selloff and recovery in ...
Gold Technical Analysis – Focus on the US data this weekFundamental OverviewGold surged into a new all-time high today after a strong run that started on Friday. There was no meaningful catalyst for the latest surge which might indicate that it was just a technical squeeze. Nevertheless, real yields have been falling steadily since ...
Silver rises to the highest in 14 yearsThe silver bugs are a special bunch but they're having a moment today. Silver rose nearly $4% to $41.22/oz today, which is the highest since September 2011. It's been a nearly straight line from $30 to $40 but I would ...
After five days of gains, gold is on the verge of a breakoutThese are heady times for the gold bulls. The previous metal is working on a five-day winning streak that's likely to continue with a $32 gain today.More importantly, it's now just a handful of dollars from the $3500 record high ...
NASDAQ Futures Analysis for the Start of the WeekNASDAQ Futures Analysis: Key Levels for Traders Ahead of U.S. Market ReopenAs U.S. markets remain closed today for the Labor Day holiday, trading activity in NASDAQ futures has been marked by light liquidity and muted volatility. Yet, even in this ...
Nasdaq Futures Technical Analysis Today as September Kicks OffNasdaq Futures Technical Analysis and Price Prediction for Today – September 1, 2025The US stock market is closed today, September 1, 2025, in observance of the Labor Day holiday. Both the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the Nasdaq Stock ...
AUDUSD increases the upside bias with a move above the cluster of MAs.The AUDUSD has broken above both the 100- and 200-bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart, after failing yesterday to sustain a move below the 100-day moving average. This shift in momentum has turned the near-term bias more constructive, with ...
NASDAQ Technical Analysis and Price Forecast with tradeCompass (August 28, 2025)NASDAQ Technical Analysis and Price Forecast with tradeCompass (August 28, 2025)Summary for NASDAQ Traders TodayBearish below: 23,650Bullish above: 23,711Current Price: 23,652Partial Profit Targets for NASDAQ Bears (Once Price Crosses Down 23,650): 23,632 – just above yesterday’s Value Area High 23,615 – aligns ...
Gold Technical Analysis – All eyes on the US labour market dataFundamental OverviewGold continued to edge higher this week following Powell’s dovish tilt last Friday. Inflation expectations kept on climbing, while Treasury yields have not gone anywhere. That caused real yields to fall giving further support to gold prices. The focus is now on ...
EURUSD finds sellers at the 100 hour MA. What next?The EURUSD, like many other pairs, has been caught in sharp two-way swings. In early U.S. trading, the pair dipped below a swing area between 1.1581–1.15885, but the move quickly failed. As has often been the case in these volatile ...