Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 22 Jan.. The USD rises with higher yields. Stocks higher. S&P cannot close at a new high. New intraday high reached.What economic releases and events will highlight trading in the new trading dayThe CME will launch Ripple and Solana futuresGary Cohn says Trump doesn't believe that tariffs will cause higher ...
Oil - private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil build vs. draw expected Via social media reports: --Expectations I had seen centred on:Headline crude -1.2 mn barrelsDistillates no change mn bblsGasoline +2.3 mn---This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API).It's a survey of oil storage facilities and ...
S&P cannot close at a new high. New intraday high reached. The major US stock indices closed higher on the day. The broader indices are up for the 3rd day in a row.The final numbers are showing:Dow industrial average rose 130.92 points or 0.30% at 44156.73.S&P index rose 37.13 ...
Economic calendar in Asia Thursday, January 23, 2025 - Japan trade data A bit of a lower tier data day today. Japanese trade data for December 2024 is due but I suspect it won't move the JPY needle too much. The Bank of Japan begin their two-day meeting today. The statement is ...
Trade ideas thread - Thursday, 23 January, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:
...
What economic releases and events will highlight trading in the new trading day 6:50 PM JPY: Trade balance. Forecast: -0.51T, Previous -0.38T6:00am GBP: CBI Industrial Order Expectations, Forecast: -35, Previous: -408:30am CAD: Core Retail Sales m/m, Forecast: 0.1%, Previous: 0.1%8:30am CAD: Retail Sales m/m, Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 0.6%8:30am USD: Unemployment Claims, Forecast: ...
Does the S&P index closed at a new record level? The S&P index is trading at 6093.40 up 44.13 points or 0.73%. At current levels, it would be high enough for a new record close. The old record close is at 6090.27.Today the price did move above its intraday record ...
Gary Cohn says Trump doesn't believe that tariffs will cause higher prices Gary Cohn was a moderating influence in Trump's first term and was his chief economic advisor. He's no longer working with Trump but he can speak to the President's thinking around tariffs as they surely discussed them many times."I think ...
Alcoa among companies reporting after the bell Aluminum giant Alcoa is a good barometer for the industrial economy and global growth. The company will report today after the bell and I will highlight any comments about the health of the world economy.Overall, it's a quieter day of ...
Crude oil settles at $75.44. Tests 200 day MA at session lows The price of crude oil has settled at $75.44. That is down -$0.39 or -0.51% on the day. The price is now down -6.60% from the high on January 15 at $80.73. The low price today reached $75.31. ...
MUFG: USD/CAD rise to 1.50-1.60 range on broad 25% US tariffs MUFG warns that a 25% tariff on all Canadian imports by the US could push USD/CAD into a 1.50-1.60 range. While markets remain optimistic that negotiations will dilute or avert the tariff threat, escalation risks loom as the 1st February ...
Oracle continues its run to the upside. What now technically for the stock? In the video above, I take a look at Oracle the day after running higher on fundamental news of a joint venture took the price above the 100 day MA and the 200 hour MA. Both breaks to the ...
ECB's Holzmann says it would be better to wait a bit longer on rate cuts The market is fully priced for a 25 bps rate cut next week with another cut nearly fully priced in for March. Holzmann is a hawk, so these comments aren't a surprise, but they're not market moving. He said inflation ...
Sam Altman gets combative with Elon Musk on Twitter There is some head-scratching about yesterday's $500 billion investment in data centers that was touted at the White House. The big question is: whose money is it?The announcement was led by Softbank's Masayoshi Son and that firm only has $134 ...
US sells 20-year notes at 4.900% vs 4.911% WI Prior was 4.686%Bid to cover at 2.75 vs 2.50 priorThis is a strong auction on part of the curve that's tough to predict. Because of that, I wouldn't necessarily extrapolate it to 10s or 30s but it's certainly better than ...
One year ago, a hedge fund manager released the saddest letter One year ago today, Asia Genesis Asset Management announced it was shutting down. The decision came after a 'disastrous' January of trading that followed several tough months and destroyed the confidence of CIO Chua Soon Hock.Every trader has gone through ...
USDCAD reaches the MA targets and backs off The USDCAD stretched higher and in doing so, reached the 100/200 hour MA target at 1.4385 to 1.43918 (see earlier video HERE). Sellers leaned at the risk-defining level on the first test, and the price has backed off. ...
European equity close: FTSE 100 fades to finish at the lows, ending 5-day winning streak It was a strong start for the UK FTSE 100 but it gave back the gains and then finished lower, breaking a five-day winning streak.On the day:Stoxx 600 +0.4%German DAX +1.0%Francis CAC +0.9%UK's FTSE 100 -0.1%Spain's IBEX -0.5%Italy's FTSE MIB ...
S&P index pushes for a record close, but stalls on the first look. The S&P index moved to a high today of 6092.82. That move took the price of the index above the highest closing level at 6090.27. The all-time high price was not breached at 6099.98.Technically speaking the price has gapped on ...
No Bank of Japan worries as USD/JPY stretches to the highs of the day USD/JPY is at the highest levels of the day and testing the top of the recent range. The pair is up 85 pips to 156.34.The high last week was 156.58 and that will be in focus through the Bank of ...
Trump threatens Russia with tariffs if Putin doesn't settle war Trump posted about Russia just now and said:I’m not looking to hurt Russia. I love the Russian people, and always
had a very good relationship with President Putin - and this despite the
Radical Left’s Russia, Russia, Russia HOAX. We ...
TradeCompass for DAX Futures: Swing and Intraday Opportunities TradeCompass: DAX Futures Analysis and Price PredictionCurrent Price OverviewDAX futures are trading at 21,377, positioned just above critical levels that dictate today’s price action:Point of Control (POC): The day's primary volume concentration.VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price): Reflects market equilibrium.Value Area ...
Deutsche Bank sees 'very real possibility' that Canadian dollar tests all-time low Deutche Bank believes that trade war risks are higher than markets are pricing and is out with a note saying the loonie is "out of the most under-priced" currencies around trade war risks.Deutche Bank that Trump does have the legal ...
NZDUSD sellers defining the ceiling for the pair between 0.56837 and 0.56917. The NZDUSD has not been without it's volatility since the US inauguration on Monday. However, the highs reached on Monday, and Tuesday and again today, stalled near the earlier January highs and the 38.2% retracement of the move down from ...
Morgan Stanley: What we expect from the January FOMC Morgan Stanley anticipates the Fed will hold rates steady at the January meeting while upgrading its assessment of the labor market. Chair Powell is expected to emphasize data dependence and policy uncertainty, leaving the door open for a potential rate ...
US December leading indicators -0.1% vs 0.0% expected Prior was +0.3%This is a composite index of data already released so it's not a market mover but it's a decent broad view of the economy.
...
AUDUSD runs into sellers near swing area/retracement target. Seller make a play. The AUDUSD has exhibited heightened volatility during the US election period. Despite the fluctuations, buyers have consistently stepped in near the rising 100-hour moving average, maintaining their presence in the market. On the flip side, recent highs from Monday and ...
Interactive Brokers delivers a warning sign with US stocks near records US stocks are set for another gain today with S&P 500 futures up 0.5% on strong earnings from Netflix and United Airlines along with the big datacenter announcement boosting AI trades.But there was a warning from Interactive Brokers today as ...
10% tariffs on China certainly isn't the worst-case scenario Chinese stocks were lower today by around 1% after Trump floated a 10% tariffs based on drug exports. I tend to think of the drug/immigration line as a cover for something else because it opens up certain sanctions avenues that ...
The USDCAD remains within the "Red Box" that has confined/defined the range since mid-Dec. The USDCAD has experienced significant volatility during the election period. Yesterday, the pair reached a new high of 1.4514, the highest level since 2020, while the previous day saw a new low near 1.42899, the lowest since mid-December. These moves ...
Canada December producer price index +0.2% vs +0.6% expected Prior was +0.6%PPI y/y +4.1% vs +2.2% priorRaw materials price index +1.3% m/m vs -0.5% expectedRaw materials price index +9.1% m/m vs +2.0% expectedThe headline here is deceptive as there are some big year-over-year declines. Much of that is base ...
Kickstart the FX trading day for Jan 22, w/ a technical look at the 3... In the kickstart video above, I take a technical look at the 3 major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD.The EURUSD is trading higher on the day, but respecting a key technical target on the topside between 1.0448 ...
ECB's Makhlouf: High levels of uncertainty call for prudence in mon pol High levels of uncertainty in global macrofinancial environment calls for prudence in monetary policy decisionsIt's hard to tell which way to take this. He's obviously talking about tariffs and whatnot but does prudence mean using your ammo or saving it?In ...
ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar gains dispelled, ECB reinforces rate cut path Headlines:Dollar pares gains on the day in European morning tradeTrump making sure that Wall Street stays more upbeat in generalECB's Lagarde: No US tariff is what I expectedECB's Lagarde: We're not overly concerned about export of inflation to EuropeECB's Knot ...
ECB's Rehn: We are aconfident inflation will stabilise at the target as predicted Monetary policy will stop being restrictive in the near futureAgain, all of the commentary today has been to sell the story of rate cuts coming in January and March. So, this is consistent with that theme.
...
US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 17 January +0.1% vs +33.3% prior Prior +33.3%Market index 224.6 vs 224.4 priorPurchase index 163.0 vs 162.0 priorRefinance index 558.8 vs 575.6 prior30-year mortgage rate 7.02% vs 7.09% priorAfter the rebound in activity in the previous reporting week following the holiday period, mortgage applications were little ...
AUDUSD Technical Analysis – The pair seems to be bottoming out Fundamental
OverviewThe USD has been marginally
weaker recently due to lower than expected US inflation figures last week that
sent Treasury yields lower and made the market to price in higher chances of a
second rate cut by the end of the year. We’ve ...
ECB's Nagel says confident inflation will return to 2% target by mid-year I am confident inflation will return to 2% target by middle of the yearMainly because wage momentum is normalisingAlso because economic developments in Europe remain subduedThe narrative today is just to say anything to sell the story of back-to-back rate ...
GBPUSD Technical Analysis – The USD erases the gains from the tariffs threats Fundamental
OverviewThe USD has been marginally
weaker recently due to lower than expected US inflation figures last week that
sent Treasury yields lower and made the market to price in higher chances of a
second rate cut by the end of the year. We’ve ...
SNB's Schlegel: We cannot exclude negative interest rates Inflation is well inside our target range and over our forecast cycleNot uncomfortable with inflation at the momentBut cannot exclude possibility of negative interest ratesIf we have to do it, we willSwiss franc is traditionally treated as a safe havenTrade ...
ECB's Villeroy: Disinflation process is still on track It is too early to tell but we could expect inflationary effects from new US policiesThere could be decoupling between ECB and Fed on rates, but it is a non-issueECB policymakers are out in droves today and they have been ...
EURUSD Technical Analysis – The market shrugs off the tariffs threats Fundamental
OverviewThe USD has been marginally
weaker recently due to lower than expected US inflation figures last week that
sent Treasury yields lower and made the market to price in higher chances of a
second rate cut by the end of the year. We’ve ...
ECB's Lagarde: We're not overly concerned about export of inflation to Europe We're confident inflation will be at target over the course of 2025We'll see if the early stages of this year will deliver a reduction in services inflationWe don't see ourselves as being behind the curveEuro exchange rate will be of ...
ECB's Lagarde: No US tariff is what I expected That's the smart approachIt doesn't mean to say it won't happen but will be more selectiveNot surprised by Trump's tariff threatsEurope must be prepared and anticipate what will happen in order to respondWell, she's not the only one to believe ...
Gold Technical Analysis – We got a key breakout Fundamental
OverviewGold continues to push into
new highs as the softer US inflation data last week led to a fall in Treasury
yields and weakened the US Dollar. The latest rally was triggered by Trump’s
threats of tariffs on Canada and Mexico.It seems like ...
Euro Futures Analysis for Today TradeCompass for Euro Futures (6E) – January 22, 2025At the time of this analysis, Euro Futures (6E) are trading at 1.04385, placing the market near the key bearish threshold of 1.04365. Below is a detailed Euro Futures analysis and price ...
Dow Jones Futures Analysis for Today TradeCompass for Dow Jones Futures – January 22, 2025At the time of this analysis, Dow Jones Futures (YM) are trading at 44,239, which places the market below the key bearish threshold of 44,243. This supports a bearish outlook for the ...
Today's Nasdaq Futures Analysis TradeCompass for Nasdaq Futures – January 22, 2025Current Price of Nasdaq Futures: Approximately 21,843Key Thresholds Within Today's Nasdaq Futures AnalysisBullish above 21,880Bearish below 21,827Nasdaq Futures Bearish ScenarioWhy 21,827?Crossing below 21,827 signals bearish momentum, as the price moves beneath key intraday ...
ECB's Stournaras says rates should be close to 2% by end of the year He had previously say that the ECB should continue with "a series of rate cuts" last week. So, the remark above is consistent with that. The current deposit rate is 3.00%, so he is pretty much touting four more 25 ...
ECB's Knot sees little obstacle to another rate cut next week Data is encouraging, confirms that we'll return to targetHopes to see recovery in economy, then we'll take it from thereThere is new downside risk from trade policy on growth, impact on inflation not so clearBut pretty comfortable with market expectations ...
Today's Bitcoin Futures Analysis TradeCompass for Bitcoin Futures Analysis – January 22, 2025Current Price of Bitcoin Futures: 106,200Key Thresholds Within Today's Bitcoin Futures AnalysisBullish above 106,840Bearish below 105,450Bitcoin Bullish ScenarioWhy 106,840?Crossing 106,840 signals bullish momentum in Bitcoin futures because:The price moves above yesterday's Value ...
New Zealand inflation data today has pricing for an RBNZ 50bp rate cut at around... Official data for Q4 CPI from New Zealand shows inflation firmly in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's 1 to 3% band. The RBNZ has a focus on keeping inflation around the 2% midpoint over the medium term.This target is ...
Poll shows 18 out of 19 economists expect a Bank of Japan rate hike on... CNBC conducted the poll, the main points:The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate this week by 25 basis points.A hike will put the BOJ’s key rate at 0.5%, its highest level since 2008.Public comments by ...
ECB President Lagarde speaking Wednesday. Villeroy and Knot also. Times below are in GMT/US Eastern time format:0900/0400ECB Governing Council member and Bank of France governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau to speak on Davos panel about interest rates1030/0530ECB policymaker Klaas Knot speaks in Davos1515/1015Participation by ECB President Christine Lagarde in ...
RBNZ's own preferred inflation model 3.1% y/y for Q4 2024 (prior 3.4%) Earlier today we had the official CPI data from NZ: New Zealand Q4 2024 CPI slightly higher than expectedFrom the Reserve Bank of New Zealand now, its model falling well below Q3 and nearly to the top of its 3% ...
PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1696 (vs. estimate at 7.2642) The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the ...
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2642 – Reuters estimate People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a ...
Heads up NZD traders - more inflation data is due, from the Reserve Bank of... The official inflation data for Q4 is published already:New Zealand Q4 2024 CPI slightly higher than expectedComing up later today (0200 GMT / 2100 US Eastern time) we'll get the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's sectoral factor model of inflation, ...
Oracle share spike higher and tilt the bias to the upside.What keeps the buyers in... The President is announcing an AI infrastructure deal with Oracle part of the JV which includes OpenAI and Softbank. Shares of Orable surged on the deal and in the process made a move technically above the stocks 100 day ...
GBPUSD retracing declines after support buyers lean against the 100/200 hour MAs The GBP/USD moved lower during the Asian and European sessions but found support near the converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages (MAs). Sellers turned into buyers at this critical area, and the pair began to rotate back to the upside. ...
Bitcoin pushes back to the upside after correction lower stalls near 200 hour MA. Bounces. Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility in recent days as the market reacts to the new Trump administration. On Monday, Bitcoin surged to its highest level ever, breaking above the December high of $108,364 and setting a new record at $109,356. ...
EURUSD bounces off swing area support and moves to a 50% retracement area. Summary of the video outlining the tech📈 Swing Area Support and Buyer ConfidenceThe EUR/USD bounced off a critical swing area support, marked by previous highs and lows, signaling strong buyer interest. That area comes between 1.0332 to 1.0343.📊 50% Retracement ...
Volatility is the name of the game for AUDUSD but buyers held support near key... The AUD/USD, like many other currency pairs over the past 24 hours, has experienced significant volatility in response to the transition of power in the U.S. under Trump. Yesterday, the pair dipped to test the 100-hour moving average (MA), briefly ...
USDCHF follows the USD lower after holding resistance at a key MA level. What next? The USD is trending lower in the early U.S. session, and the USD/CHF is no exception. Technical factors are reinforcing this move, with sellers stepping in at the key 100-hour moving average (MA), located at 0.9112. The pair tested this ...
BOJ moving towards rate hike at this week's meeting - report The BOJ decision is on Jan 24 and the market is pricing in about an 85% chance of a hike so this report isn't a surprise.USD/JPY is modestly lower and at the lows of the day at 155.42.Update: This report ...
USDCAD swings wildly as Trump impacts the currency pair. What are the technicals saying? The USD/CAD is heavily influenced by headline news stemming from the new Trump presidency. Yesterday, the pair initially moved lower, tracking the USD's response to the inauguration address. However, the market reacted sharply as comments and executive orders (EOs) began ...
DAX Futures Analysis and AI Price Prediction DAX Futures Analysis: Key Levels and Price PredictionDAX Futures OverviewThe DAX futures market is trading at 21,091, slightly down by 0.15% compared to yesterday’s close. The market sentiment appears neutral to indecisive, as reflected in the AI sentiment score of ...