Oil - private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil build vs. draw expectedVia social media reports: --Expectations I had seen centred on:Headline crude -1.2 mn barrelsDistillates no change mn bblsGasoline +2.3 mn---This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API).It's a survey of oil storage facilities and ...
S&P cannot close at a new high. New intraday high reached.The major US stock indices closed higher on the day. The broader indices are up for the 3rd day in a row.The final numbers are showing:Dow industrial average rose 130.92 points or 0.30% at 44156.73.S&P index rose 37.13 ...
Does the S&P index closed at a new record level?The S&P index is trading at 6093.40 up 44.13 points or 0.73%. At current levels, it would be high enough for a new record close. The old record close is at 6090.27.Today the price did move above its intraday record ...
Gary Cohn says Trump doesn't believe that tariffs will cause higher pricesGary Cohn was a moderating influence in Trump's first term and was his chief economic advisor. He's no longer working with Trump but he can speak to the President's thinking around tariffs as they surely discussed them many times."I think ...
Alcoa among companies reporting after the bellAluminum giant Alcoa is a good barometer for the industrial economy and global growth. The company will report today after the bell and I will highlight any comments about the health of the world economy.Overall, it's a quieter day of ...
Crude oil settles at $75.44. Tests 200 day MA at session lowsThe price of crude oil has settled at $75.44. That is down -$0.39 or -0.51% on the day. The price is now down -6.60% from the high on January 15 at $80.73. The low price today reached $75.31. ...
MUFG: USD/CAD rise to 1.50-1.60 range on broad 25% US tariffsMUFG warns that a 25% tariff on all Canadian imports by the US could push USD/CAD into a 1.50-1.60 range. While markets remain optimistic that negotiations will dilute or avert the tariff threat, escalation risks loom as the 1st February ...
Sam Altman gets combative with Elon Musk on TwitterThere is some head-scratching about yesterday's $500 billion investment in data centers that was touted at the White House. The big question is: whose money is it?The announcement was led by Softbank's Masayoshi Son and that firm only has $134 ...
US sells 20-year notes at 4.900% vs 4.911% WIPrior was 4.686%Bid to cover at 2.75 vs 2.50 priorThis is a strong auction on part of the curve that's tough to predict. Because of that, I wouldn't necessarily extrapolate it to 10s or 30s but it's certainly better than ...
One year ago, a hedge fund manager released the saddest letterOne year ago today, Asia Genesis Asset Management announced it was shutting down. The decision came after a 'disastrous' January of trading that followed several tough months and destroyed the confidence of CIO Chua Soon Hock.Every trader has gone through ...
USDCAD reaches the MA targets and backs offThe USDCAD stretched higher and in doing so, reached the 100/200 hour MA target at 1.4385 to 1.43918 (see earlier video HERE). Sellers leaned at the risk-defining level on the first test, and the price has backed off. ...
S&P index pushes for a record close, but stalls on the first look.The S&P index moved to a high today of 6092.82. That move took the price of the index above the highest closing level at 6090.27. The all-time high price was not breached at 6099.98.Technically speaking the price has gapped on ...
Trump threatens Russia with tariffs if Putin doesn't settle warTrump posted about Russia just now and said:I’m not looking to hurt Russia. I love the Russian people, and always had a very good relationship with President Putin - and this despite the Radical Left’s Russia, Russia, Russia HOAX. We ...
TradeCompass for DAX Futures: Swing and Intraday OpportunitiesTradeCompass: DAX Futures Analysis and Price PredictionCurrent Price OverviewDAX futures are trading at 21,377, positioned just above critical levels that dictate today’s price action:Point of Control (POC): The day's primary volume concentration.VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price): Reflects market equilibrium.Value Area ...
Morgan Stanley: What we expect from the January FOMCMorgan Stanley anticipates the Fed will hold rates steady at the January meeting while upgrading its assessment of the labor market. Chair Powell is expected to emphasize data dependence and policy uncertainty, leaving the door open for a potential rate ...
AUDUSD runs into sellers near swing area/retracement target. Seller make a play.The AUDUSD has exhibited heightened volatility during the US election period. Despite the fluctuations, buyers have consistently stepped in near the rising 100-hour moving average, maintaining their presence in the market. On the flip side, recent highs from Monday and ...
Interactive Brokers delivers a warning sign with US stocks near recordsUS stocks are set for another gain today with S&P 500 futures up 0.5% on strong earnings from Netflix and United Airlines along with the big datacenter announcement boosting AI trades.But there was a warning from Interactive Brokers today as ...
10% tariffs on China certainly isn't the worst-case scenarioChinese stocks were lower today by around 1% after Trump floated a 10% tariffs based on drug exports. I tend to think of the drug/immigration line as a cover for something else because it opens up certain sanctions avenues that ...
Canada December producer price index +0.2% vs +0.6% expectedPrior was +0.6%PPI y/y +4.1% vs +2.2% priorRaw materials price index +1.3% m/m vs -0.5% expectedRaw materials price index +9.1% m/m vs +2.0% expectedThe headline here is deceptive as there are some big year-over-year declines. Much of that is base ...
Kickstart the FX trading day for Jan 22, w/ a technical look at the 3...In the kickstart video above, I take a technical look at the 3 major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD.The EURUSD is trading higher on the day, but respecting a key technical target on the topside between 1.0448 ...
ECB's Makhlouf: High levels of uncertainty call for prudence in mon polHigh levels of uncertainty in global macrofinancial environment calls for prudence in monetary policy decisionsIt's hard to tell which way to take this. He's obviously talking about tariffs and whatnot but does prudence mean using your ammo or saving it?In ...
US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 17 January +0.1% vs +33.3% priorPrior +33.3%Market index 224.6 vs 224.4 priorPurchase index 163.0 vs 162.0 priorRefinance index 558.8 vs 575.6 prior30-year mortgage rate 7.02% vs 7.09% priorAfter the rebound in activity in the previous reporting week following the holiday period, mortgage applications were little ...
AUDUSD Technical Analysis – The pair seems to be bottoming outFundamental OverviewThe USD has been marginally weaker recently due to lower than expected US inflation figures last week that sent Treasury yields lower and made the market to price in higher chances of a second rate cut by the end of the year. We’ve ...
ECB's Nagel says confident inflation will return to 2% target by mid-yearI am confident inflation will return to 2% target by middle of the yearMainly because wage momentum is normalisingAlso because economic developments in Europe remain subduedThe narrative today is just to say anything to sell the story of back-to-back rate ...
GBPUSD Technical Analysis – The USD erases the gains from the tariffs threatsFundamental OverviewThe USD has been marginally weaker recently due to lower than expected US inflation figures last week that sent Treasury yields lower and made the market to price in higher chances of a second rate cut by the end of the year. We’ve ...
SNB's Schlegel: We cannot exclude negative interest ratesInflation is well inside our target range and over our forecast cycleNot uncomfortable with inflation at the momentBut cannot exclude possibility of negative interest ratesIf we have to do it, we willSwiss franc is traditionally treated as a safe havenTrade ...
ECB's Villeroy: Disinflation process is still on trackIt is too early to tell but we could expect inflationary effects from new US policiesThere could be decoupling between ECB and Fed on rates, but it is a non-issueECB policymakers are out in droves today and they have been ...
EURUSD Technical Analysis – The market shrugs off the tariffs threatsFundamental OverviewThe USD has been marginally weaker recently due to lower than expected US inflation figures last week that sent Treasury yields lower and made the market to price in higher chances of a second rate cut by the end of the year. We’ve ...
ECB's Lagarde: No US tariff is what I expectedThat's the smart approachIt doesn't mean to say it won't happen but will be more selectiveNot surprised by Trump's tariff threatsEurope must be prepared and anticipate what will happen in order to respondWell, she's not the only one to believe ...
Gold Technical Analysis – We got a key breakoutFundamental OverviewGold continues to push into new highs as the softer US inflation data last week led to a fall in Treasury yields and weakened the US Dollar. The latest rally was triggered by Trump’s threats of tariffs on Canada and Mexico.It seems like ...
Euro Futures Analysis for TodayTradeCompass for Euro Futures (6E) – January 22, 2025At the time of this analysis, Euro Futures (6E) are trading at 1.04385, placing the market near the key bearish threshold of 1.04365. Below is a detailed Euro Futures analysis and price ...
Dow Jones Futures Analysis for TodayTradeCompass for Dow Jones Futures – January 22, 2025At the time of this analysis, Dow Jones Futures (YM) are trading at 44,239, which places the market below the key bearish threshold of 44,243. This supports a bearish outlook for the ...
ECB's Stournaras says rates should be close to 2% by end of the yearHe had previously say that the ECB should continue with "a series of rate cuts" last week. So, the remark above is consistent with that. The current deposit rate is 3.00%, so he is pretty much touting four more 25 ...
ECB's Knot sees little obstacle to another rate cut next weekData is encouraging, confirms that we'll return to targetHopes to see recovery in economy, then we'll take it from thereThere is new downside risk from trade policy on growth, impact on inflation not so clearBut pretty comfortable with market expectations ...
Poll shows 18 out of 19 economists expect a Bank of Japan rate hike on...CNBC conducted the poll, the main points:The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate this week by 25 basis points.A hike will put the BOJ’s key rate at 0.5%, its highest level since 2008.Public comments by ...
ECB President Lagarde speaking Wednesday. Villeroy and Knot also.Times below are in GMT/US Eastern time format:0900/0400ECB Governing Council member and Bank of France governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau to speak on Davos panel about interest rates1030/0530ECB policymaker Klaas Knot speaks in Davos1515/1015Participation by ECB President Christine Lagarde in ...
PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1696 (vs. estimate at 7.2642)The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the ...
Heads up NZD traders - more inflation data is due, from the Reserve Bank of...The official inflation data for Q4 is published already:New Zealand Q4 2024 CPI slightly higher than expectedComing up later today (0200 GMT / 2100 US Eastern time) we'll get the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's sectoral factor model of inflation, ...
EURUSD bounces off swing area support and moves to a 50% retracement area.Summary of the video outlining the tech📈 Swing Area Support and Buyer ConfidenceThe EUR/USD bounced off a critical swing area support, marked by previous highs and lows, signaling strong buyer interest. That area comes between 1.0332 to 1.0343.📊 50% Retracement ...
BOJ moving towards rate hike at this week's meeting - reportThe BOJ decision is on Jan 24 and the market is pricing in about an 85% chance of a hike so this report isn't a surprise.USD/JPY is modestly lower and at the lows of the day at 155.42.Update: This report ...
DAX Futures Analysis and AI Price PredictionDAX Futures Analysis: Key Levels and Price PredictionDAX Futures OverviewThe DAX futures market is trading at 21,091, slightly down by 0.15% compared to yesterday’s close. The market sentiment appears neutral to indecisive, as reflected in the AI sentiment score of ...